The US in early May will likely extend expiring sanctions waivers to at least four of Iran's top 

crude and condensate buyers, but will require purchases to be reduced by another 20%, 

causing Iranian exports to dip below 800,000 b/d within a month, according to an S&P Global 

Platts survey. 

The Trump administration is expected to allow China, India, South Korea and Turkey to 

continue to import Iranian crude and condensate for another six months, while letting waivers 

for Italy, Greece, Japan and Taiwan expire in early May, according to the survey, which polled a 

dozen analysts closely tracking Iranian oil sanctions policy. 

One source familiar with the administration's current plans for next month said the US would 

allow China to maintain its current Iranian imports of about 500,000 b/d, require India to cut to 

300,000 b/d from 350,000 b/d currently, and Turkey to about 75,000 b/d. Under the current 

plan, South Korea would be tasked with lowering its Iranian condensate purchases by another 

10%, or about 18,000 b/d, this source said. 

But, the Trump administration's plans on Iran sanctions remain in flux, multiple sources said 

this week. 

The current, six-month waivers, known as significant reduction exemptions, expire in early 

May. 

With the waivers in place, Iranian crude and condensate exports averaged about 1.3 million 

b/d in Q1 2019, up about 170,000 b/d from Q4 2018 when purchases of Iranian crude dipped 

because of questions over the reimposition of US sanctions in November, according to Platts 

Analytics. The Trump administration did not publicly signal its intent to grant waivers until they 

were initially announced November 2. 

That uncertainty will again cause Iranian crude and condensate exports to dip, this time to 

about 800,000 b/d before the likely extensions of sanctions waivers are announced in May, 

according to Platts Analytics.